A very strong El Niño is on track for winter 2026-27, and NOAA's forecasters put the odds above 90%. The Climate Prediction Center's September 10 ENSO discussion keeps its El Niño Advisory in place and says the event is still strengthening. For travelers, the seasonal outlook that followed on September 17 tilts the odds toward a wetter winter across California and the Southeast, a warmer one across the northern tier of the US, and a drier one in Hawaii. Those are probabilities, not promises, and that's the whole case for booking this winter's award trips with an exit.

What is NOAA forecasting for El Niño this winter?

The short version, in the Climate Prediction Center's own words from the diagnostic discussion issued September 10, 2026: "El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27."

It goes further than that. For October through December, the CPC gives a 75% chance of what it calls "a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950." That's measured as a three-month relative index value of +2.5°C or more. In August, the Niño-3.4 index, a sea surface temperature reading in the equatorial Pacific, had already reached +1.8°C.

Here's the line worth keeping in mind before you rebook anything. The CPC says that with an event this size, "the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed." A strong El Niño loads the dice. It doesn't pick the number.

There's also a wrinkle this year. The September 17 seasonal outlook points out that the three biggest El Niño events since 1950 (1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16) all happened with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in its positive phase. This time the PDO is negative, with an August index value of -1.11, and the forecasters write that it "may dampen the typical impacts of a strong El Niño in certain areas." So if you're planning around memories of 1997-98, don't assume a rerun.

How El Niño could shape western ski trips

The CPC outlooks forecast temperature and total precipitation over three-month windows. Whether that precipitation arrives as powder at a given resort depends on how cold it is when the storm hits. With that caveat, the West splits roughly in two.

California leans wet. From December through April, the outlook's probabilities of above-normal precipitation "increase across California, reaching a maximum of 50-60 percent near the coast" for the December-February, January-March and February-April periods. The favored wet area reaches "as far north as central Oregon, and possibly farther north given the intensity of this current El Niño event." The forecasters add that these probabilities "may be increased further" in the next outlook. For Tahoe and Mammoth trips, that's the most encouraging signal on the board, though the 50-60% peak is drawn near the coast.

The northern tier leans warm. From November-January through February-April, the highest chances of above-normal temperatures, 50-60%, sit "over interior portions of the Northwest and along much of the northern tier of states." The outlook also carries a weak tilt toward below-normal precipitation over the interior Northwest. If your winter plan is a points trip to Montana or the Idaho panhandle, a warm, slightly dry lean isn't what a skier wants to see, and it's a reason to keep that booking flexible.

The Southwest's warm tilt fades. The Four Corners region is inside the wet signal for October through December. On temperature, the CPC says the Southwest's modest warm tilt "gradually gives way to EC" over the winter, its shorthand for equal chances of above, near and below normal.

A 50-60% chance of above-normal precipitation still leaves a real chance of a normal or dry winter. That's why none of this should decide whether you go skiing. It should decide how you book.

What does El Niño mean for Hawaii this winter?

Hawaii's outlook runs the other way from California: drier. The CPC's Hawaii discussion, also issued September 17, says below-normal precipitation is "increasingly likely for all of Hawaii" from October through the March-April-May 2027 season.

For Honolulu, the odds of a below-normal precipitation season climb from 60% for October through December to 75% for December through February and again for January through March. Hilo, Kahului and Lihue show the same pattern. Temperatures flip during the winter, too. The outlook favors above-normal temperatures for all four stations in October through December, then gives a 40% chance of below-normal temperatures from January through April, noting that El Niño tends to bring cooler-than-average temperatures to the northwestern islands as the winter goes on.

For most visitors, a drier Hawaii winter isn't a problem, and plenty would call it the opposite. The point is that a winter Hawaii redemption is the one on this list that NOAA's odds favor rather than threaten. If you're pricing hotels, our guide to the best Hawaii hotels to book with points covers where Hyatt's chart beats dynamic pricing.

El Niño and Caribbean trips: the hurricane outlook

The CPC's seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks cover the contiguous US, Alaska and Hawaii. For a Caribbean trip, the NOAA product that speaks to the season is the Atlantic hurricane outlook, and El Niño sits at the center of NOAA's reasoning for this year's numbers.

NOAA's updated 2026 Atlantic outlook, issued August 6, gives a 75% chance of a below-normal season, a 20% chance of near-normal and a 5% chance of above-normal. It calls for 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes and 0-2 major hurricanes, each range with a 70% probability, against 1991-2020 averages of 14, 7 and 3. The reasoning is direct. NOAA writes that hurricane seasons coinciding with strong El Niño events since 1950 have "featured below-normal seasonal activity," and the same outlook names one near-normal exception, 1965, which it puts down to the long-lived Hurricane Betsy.

Two caveats come straight from NOAA. The outlook "is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular location." And "It only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster." The season officially runs through November 30, so a Thanksgiving week in the Caribbean still sits inside it. A peak Caribbean winter trip in January or February falls after the season closes.

Florida, the Gulf Coast and Alaska

Two more regions carry strong signals worth knowing about if you're booking winter travel.

Florida and the Gulf Coast lean wet. For October through December, the greatest chances of above-normal precipitation, higher than 60%, sit over "parts of the eastern Gulf Coast region and Southeast coast." Over the winter, those odds rise to "a maximum of 70-80 percent over southern Georgia and northern Florida." Temperatures across much of the Southeast are forecast near normal from November through April. A February Orlando trip is still a February Orlando trip, but pack for rain and build a rain day into any theme park plan.

Alaska splits. Southeast Alaska is favored for above-normal temperatures, with 50-60% probabilities from October through February, and it keeps a wet tilt all winter. By December through February, the outlook shows "a widespread dry signal over most of the Mainland."

How to book award travel for an El Niño winter

The practical answer is to hold the trip without being held by it. Seasonal outlooks shift the odds, and they get updated every month. The CPC's next seasonal outlook comes out October 15, 2026, and the next ENSO discussion is scheduled for October 8. Anything you book now, you're booking against a forecast that gets two updates in October alone.

Here's how I'd set up a winter award trip this year:

  • Book awards you can cancel for free. Delta's SkyMiles rules (last updated January 1, 2026) say that for travel originating in the US and Canada, members may change or cancel Award tickets "without a redeposit or change fee," with Delta Basic fares excluded. Check your own program's rule before you book, and skip basic award fares for any trip that depends on the weather.
  • Pick the refundable hotel rate. For a ski trip, the cancellation deadline on the hotel matters more than the one on the flight, because that's the booking you'll want to move if the snow report looks thin in January.
  • Lock the trip NOAA's odds favor, and hold the ones they don't. A dry-leaning Hawaii winter or a wet-leaning Tahoe trip is a booking you can make with more confidence than most. A Montana ski week on a warm, dry lean is one to hold as a refundable placeholder.
  • Recheck after each outlook. Put October 15 in your calendar, check each monthly update after that, and look at the new maps before your cancellation deadlines pass.
  • Know what your card covers before something goes wrong. Our guide to what happens when weather hits your trip walks through airline refund rules and card trip protection, and our roundup of credit cards with travel insurance compares coverage. If a winter storm does cancel your flight, here's what to do when your flight is delayed or canceled.

Say you're holding 60,000 miles for a February ski week and you're choosing between two resorts. If one sits in the wet signal and the other in the warm, dry lean, the outlook doesn't guarantee either result, but it does tell you which of the two to keep refundable until January. If you want a separate policy for a big nonrefundable trip, you can compare quotes on InsureMyTrip.

What to do now

If you've already booked a winter trip, check whether the award and the hotel can be canceled for free, and note the deadlines. If you haven't, book the flexible version of the trip you want, then look at the CPC's October 15 outlook before you commit to anything nonrefundable. The forecast is strong this year, but it's still a forecast.

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Sources

  1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued September 10, 2026 (read 2026-09-23)
  2. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, September 17, 2026 (read 2026-09-23)
  3. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks, September 17, 2026 (read 2026-09-23)
  4. NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook update, issued August 6, 2026 (read 2026-09-23)
  5. Delta SkyMiles Program Rules, last updated 1/1/2026 (read 2026-09-23)

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