Not soon. Airline fares were up 22.4% over the 12 months ending September 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and they rose another 1.2% in September alone. Fuel is the clearest driver, so fares are unlikely to ease until fuel costs fall or airlines add seats.
This guide covers what the latest numbers show, what would bring fares down, and how to pay less while they're high.
What the Numbers Say
The September Consumer Price Index puts airline fares up 22.4% from a year earlier, while prices for all items rose 3.7%. The BLS energy index rose 20.4% over the same 12 months.
One caution before you read that as your fare. The airline fares index prices regularly scheduled, non-business trips, and it uses discount fares, so it shows the direction of the market rather than the price of your route. Some routes and dates have moved far more than 22.4%, and some far less.
Why Fares Are Rising
Airlines set fares from their costs and the seats they fly. Fuel is the cost that moved most this year. Delta reported that its adjusted fuel expense rose 62% to about $4.1 billion in the September quarter, and it expects an all-in fuel price near $4.25 a gallon in the December quarter.
When costs rise and airlines keep seats tight, fares follow. The reverse is what brings prices down.
When Fares Could Drop
Three things would pull fares lower.
Fuel prices falling is the biggest lever. Watch the energy index in each monthly CPI release and the fuel assumptions airlines give on their earnings calls.
Airlines adding seats faster than demand grows is the second. More supply on a route pushes fares down, and new service on a route is usually where you see it first.
Demand softening is the third. If travelers stop paying these prices, airlines respond with sales.
None of these is a date you can plan around, so book the trips you need at a price you can live with, and use the tools below for the ones you can move.
How to Pay Less Right Now
Flexibility is worth more than any single trick. These are the moves that work most often:
- Move your dates and airports. Compare nearby airports and shift a departure by a day or two. Google Flights' calendar and Explore views show the price gap across dates and destinations in one screen.
- Track the fare. Turn on price tracking for your route so you're alerted when it drops, and use its price insights to see whether today's fare is low, typical or high.
- Compare booking sites. Fare-finder sites find different fares, so check more than one before you buy.
- Book holiday trips early. Peak dates are already expensive, as our guide to holiday airfare and the cheapest days to fly explains.
When Miles Beat Cash
When cash fares climb, an award ticket can look better. Many programs price awards dynamically, though, so check both before you move any points.
To compare, subtract the taxes you'd pay on the award from the cash fare, then divide by the miles required. That gives you cents per point. If it's above what your points are usually worth to you, redeem. If it's below, pay cash and keep the points for a better trip. Our guide to how award flights work covers charts, dynamic pricing and what you still pay on an award.
Updated October 17, 2026: airfare outlook.
